The peak demand for power in September declined to 230 GW compared with 243 GW registered in the corresponding period of last fiscal, which was also the annual peak for the year. The peak registered in September is also lower than 260 GW estimated by the power ministry.
“This can be attributed to the lower rainfall in September compared with August, resulting in higher cooling requirements. Long period average (LPA) of rainfall for August is 254.9 mm, while that for September is 167.9 mm,” Crisil Ratings said.
As compared to the earlier peak of 250 GW registered in May, power demand in the country declined for the second month in a row last month to an estimated 141 billion units (BUs), down 0.3% from the same period last year.
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Power generation on the other hand is estimated to have increased by nearly 2% on-year to around 152 BUs in September, more than meeting the monthly demand.
While the coal and gas based power generation declined during the month at by 5% and 15%, respectively, power generation from hydro, nuclear and renewable energy increased 40%, 9% and 7% on-year respectively, as per Crisil.
“Higher hydro generation also rode on base effect considering it had declined 26% in September 2023. Consequently, the share of hydro generation jumped to 15% in September from 11% in the corresponding month last year, whereas the share of coal power declined to 65% from 69%,” the agency said.
While the share of generation from renewable energy sources increased, coal based power continued to be the dominant source to meet the power demand. As per the data, coal dispatch to power plants during July-August surged 3% from last year resulting in increased coal stocks at power plants.
As on September 29, thermal power plants had 37 million tonnes (MT) of coal as against 25 MT during the same period last year.
In 2023, higher temperatures brought on by El Nino, along with lower rainfall, had led to a significantly higher dependence on coal back then. As a result, coal power generation had surged 17% on-year in the month.
“With the reverse playing out this year, the coal stock situation has improved, as indicated by 13 days of stocks at power plants as of September 29, 2024, compared with 8 days last year,” said Crisil.
To avoid supply issues during the monsoon, the government has extended blending of imported coal for domestic coal plants till October 15. It has also revised the blending weightage to 4% from 6% to ensure sufficient coal supply to power plants.
Crisil Ratings projects power demand to rise 6.5-7.5% for the current fiscal 2024-25 due to the vagaries of the weather, including the severe and prolonged heat waves seen in the first quarter and insufficient rainfall in July in northern India.
“Strong economic activity, with estimates pointing to the country’s gross domestic product expanding 6.8% on-year this fiscal, is boosting demand, too,” it said.
From: financialexpress
Financial News
