(Bloomberg) — Mexico’s annual inflation slowed roughly in line with expectations in August as a spike in food and energy prices faded, giving the central bank more room to consider another interest rate cut this month.
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Consumer prices rose 4.99% in the month from a year earlier, a touch below the 5.06% median estimate from analysts in a Bloomberg survey, the national statistics institute reported on Monday.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as fuel, eased to 4%, at the top of the bank’s target range of 3% plus or minus one percentage point.
Mexico’s central bank, known as Banxico, is expected to mull its second-straight rate cut at its Sept. 26 decision. Food items, includes tomatoes, onions, and lemons had caused an inflation spike in recent weeks after a period of drought was followed by heavy rains. Still, that didn’t stop policymakers from lowering borrowing costs in August as economic activity weakened.
Central bank deputy governor Jonathan Heath said in an interview last week that it was uncertain how soon food price pressure would cool to bring policymakers relief as they consider whether to lower rates further this month.
Recent political turmoil in the Mexican Congress, where the ruling party and its allies are preparing to pass a bill that would change the constitution and overhaul the judiciary, has added to uncertainty about the trajectory of the currency and inflation. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill this week.
“The bursting of the peso bubble that has brought MXN to about 20.0 per USD for the first time since 4Q22 will probably delay the convergence to the inflation target next year,” Gabriel Lozano, JPMorgan’s chief economist for Mexico, wrote in a note before today’s data.
Mexico’s economic slowdown could help damp inflation, with the central bank in August dialing down its prediction for 2024 gross domestic product growth to 1.5% from 2.4%.
–With assistance from Rafael Gayol.
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