India’s peak demand for power that has been rising at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6%, is now expected to grow faster at 7% in the next five years, owing to increased economic activity and setting up of new industries, Ghanshyam Prasad, Chairperson of the Central Electricity Authority said.
For the first time, the CEA is also planning to come out with a National Electricity Plan for the distribution sector to ensure better network planning and power adequacy. Currently, NEPs are formulated for generation and transmission.
CEA has projected country’s peak power demand to touch 270 gigawatt (GW) in the next financial year (2025-26) and reach 446 GW by 2030. The projected peak is on account of rising economic activity and adverse climatic conditions.
“We are targeting around 7% CAGR for power demand in the next five years because of the economic jerk that has happened. It gets directly correlated to demand. We will see a sudden jerk (in power demand) and then a saturation point,” Prasad said.
In the current fiscal year, the country has so far registered a peak demand of 250 GW in May on the back of high temperatures. The government has projected the peak power demand to touch 260 GW during the summer season this year.
Last year, the peak power demand reached 243 GW in September. The projected peak demand could not be reached due to heavy rainfall in the months of August and September this year that helped in lowering the temperatures, Prasad said.
Furthermore, the CEA expects the country to add 43 GW of power capacity in the fiscal ending March 2025 which should be able to meet the incremental power demand next year. Of the total capacity, Prasad expects 10 GW of coal-based capacity, 30 GW of solar & wind capacity, 3 GW of hydro, and another 700 MW of nuclear capacity.
“With this capacity we will be able to meet the incremental demand of 20 GW.”
Prasad added: “Our draft (NEP for distribution) is ready and we have held stakeholder’s consultation. We have already sent it to the ministry for their approval. Since distribution companies also lay their network, someone has to do network planning as well. What we want is a plan for the next 10 years,” the Chairperson said.
He said that the CEA in collaboration with the power ministry is working on the respective NEPs for transmission, generation, and distribution so that there are be no issues in the power supply chain going ahead.
The CEA has recently laid out resource adequacy plans till 2031-32 for each state and discoms to be able to meet the projected rise in power demand and now plans to revise it every year.
“We have mandated all the distribution companies to ensure resource adequacy and we have prepared a roadmap in consultation with the discoms till 2031-32. We have now started the second round that is for 2034-35. In these plans, there is a good visibility to all discoms to tie up power adequately so that they have resources, are able to meet the demand of the customers, and also minimize the cost by as much as possible,” Prasad said.
In addition to the resource adequacy plans for distribution, the CEA is also planning to do resource adequacy study for the transmission sector and has started a pilot study for four states including Delhi, Rajasthan, Karnataka, and Maharashtra. Prasad highlighted that 100 GW of transmission capacity is in the pipeline which is expected to come up in the next 2-3 years to catch up with the RE capacity addition.
The CEA is organising a conclave on the ‘Indian Power Sector Scenario 2047,’ scheduled for 14-15 October in Delhi. The two-day event being organized in partnership with FICCI and Central Board of Irrigation and Power will provide an outlook for the overall power sector by 2047.
From: financialexpress
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