(Bloomberg) — Traders betting big on a weaker dollar are facing disappointment — at least for now — as the greenback remains resilient following the Federal Reserve’s half-point interest-rate cut.
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Despite a Bloomberg gauge of the greenback heading toward a third week of losses the measure is little changed since the Fed announced the reduction on Wednesday. Speculative traders held some $15 billion of wagers against the currency in the week ended Sept. 10 — the most recent for which data is available. Lower interest rates typically weigh on a country’s currency, prompting traders to ramp up bets against the dollar.
On Friday, fresh Commodity Futures Trading Commission data will reveal whether asset managers and hedge funds stuck to their pessimistic bets in the days leading up to the Fed decision. The report will cover the week ending Sept. 17.
Dollar selling has been subdued since the Fed lowered borrowing costs after holding them steady for more than a year, likely because the central bank’s projections signal a more gradual path of monetary easing.
Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged in his comments Wednesday that the Fed’s long-run, neutral rate of interest, or R*, is likely higher than before the pandemic, muddying the outlook for the greenback in the context of other major global economies. That could help keep the dollar strong, according to Kit Juckes, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Societe Generale, in a Friday note.
Juckes, who estimates the nominal US neutral rate at just under 3%, said that “as long as R* in Europe and Asia is (much) lower than in the US, capital will be drawn to the dollar.”
Still, some market watchers expect the long-awaited easing will weigh on the dollar in the near-term as the US loses some of its appeal as rates come down from a two-decade high. Swaps pricing signals around 70 basis points more of Fed cuts to come in 2024.
“We’ve seen fluctuations like this throughout the year, but with more interest rate cuts expected, we anticipate a weaker dollar against the major currencies through the end of the year,” said Andy Gage, a senior vice president of FX solutions and advisory services at corporate treasury management firm Kyriba Corp.
–With assistance from George Lei.
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