Remember when billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya made his $500,000 Bitcoin-by-October-2025 prediction on the All-In Podcast? Swing and a miss!
After a string of high-profile forecasts proved inaccurate in 2025, confidence in Bitcoin “target-price narratives” has faded. Analysts now frame projections as scenario ranges, not promises. Still, that hasn’t stopped banks, CEOs, and veteran traders from publishing bold outlooks for Bitcoin’s next act.
Wu Blockchain compiled the core conclusions behind these forecasts, revealing just how wide the disagreement is — from six-figure upside driven by ETFs and institutional demand to catastrophic downside tied to macro tightening and technical breakdowns.
Below is a breakdown of where major voices think Bitcoin could land by 2026, and why.
Summary
- The bullish take: Bitcoin reaches $150,000–$250,000 on ETF inflows, institutional adoption, and looser monetary policy.
- The bearish take: Expect drawdowns to $70,000 or lower if demand weakens or macro conditions tighten.
- Liquidity, regulation, and sustained institutional participation—not halving cycles alone—are now viewed as the key forces shaping Bitcoin’s 2026 trajectory.
Tom Lee: $200,000–$250,000
BitMine chair Tom Lee has repeatedly argued that Bitcoin could reach $200,000–$250,000 by the end of 2026, driven by expanding institutional allocations and structural inflows from spot ETFs. He believes institutional participation may fundamentally alter Bitcoin’s traditional market cycles.
That said, Fundstrat, which Lee co-founded, isn’t monolithic.
Sean Farrell: $60,000–$65,000
Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy warned clients that a sharp pullback could occur in early 2026, with BTC potentially falling to $60,000–$65,000 before resuming higher. Farrell emphasized the difference in time horizons: Lee speaks to long-term, low-allocation institutional investors, while Farrell focuses on active, higher-risk crypto portfolios.
Brad Garlinghouse: $180,000 and $100,000+
At Binance Blockchain Week in December 2025, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse predicted Bitcoin could hit $180,000 by end-2026.
Sharing the stage, Solana Foundation President Lily Liu offered a more conservative view, saying Bitcoin could trade above $100,000, while Binance CEO Richard Teng declined to give a number but said prices would be “higher than today.”
JPMorgan: $170,000 (Model-Implied Ceiling)
JPMorgan’s digital-assets team, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, pegs Bitcoin’s volatility-adjusted fair value near $170,000, using a BTC-to-gold relative valuation model. The New York-based investment bank frames this as a theoretical upper bound, not a year-end target, signaling upside potential over the next six to 12 months rather than a guaranteed destination.
Standard Chartered: $150,000 (Down from $300K)
Once among Bitcoin’s loudest bulls, Standard Chartered has dramatically cut its forecasts. The bank now expects BTC to reach $150,000 in 2026, roughly half its prior projection. The revision reflects slowing ETF inflows, fading demand catalysts, and broader market weakness. While the bank remains bullish long-term, it believes Bitcoin’s timeline has stretched.
Bernstein: $150,000
Bernstein sees Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026, driven by institutional capital and spot-ETF inflows. The firm believes Bitcoin is no longer bound by the traditional four-year halving cycle, instead entering an extended institutional bull phase. Longer-term, it maintains far more aggressive targets — including $1 million by 2033.
BSTR President Katherine Dowling: $150,000
Katherine Dowling, president of Bitcoin reserve firm BSTR, expects BTC to climb to $150,000 by end-2026, citing three tailwinds:
- Clearer U.S. crypto regulation
- A shift toward looser monetary policy (rate cuts, end of QT)
- Growing Wall Street adoption of Bitcoin ETFs (1%–4% allocations)
Citigroup: $143,000 (Base Case)
Citi outlines three scenarios for a 62% upside from current levels near $88,000:
- Base case: $143,000
- Bear case: ~$78,500
- Bull case: ~$189,000 if institutional and retail demand accelerate
The bank flags $70,000 as a key support level.
Arthur Hayes: $124,000 to $200,000
Crypto trader Arthur Hayes, in his December 19 essay “Love Language,” says Bitcoin could break above roughly $124,000 in 2026 and further challenge the ~$200,000 level.
Per Wu Blockchain, Hayes’ “logic chain” is:
Money-supply expansion → inflation pressure → investors rotate into scarce-supply assets (like BTC) as a hedge.
