Can bulls hold above $122K?

Following a period of volatility during which it tested both the upside and downside extremes, Bitcoin has now settled between $121,000 and $122,000.

This Bitcoin price prediction comes as the market enters a consolidation phase after record-breaking ETF inflows in late September. Despite a minor slowdown, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to draw substantial investment. 

As macro concerns have subsided and institutional demand has remained strong, broader market mood has become cautiously bullish. Whether the current consolidation turns into a deeper pullback phase or a renewed push higher could depend on the bulls’ ability to reclaim the $125K+ level in the days ahead.

Current BTC price scenario

Bitcoin is still above previous barrier levels that were recaptured early this month, trading in a somewhat narrow area between $120,000 and $125,000.  CoinDesk data from October 9, 2025, shows that Bitcoin (BTC) is still range-bound at $121,200, indicating a lull in momentum following late-September advances fuelled by ETFs.

Despite small liquidation events, open interest in futures markets is still high, suggesting that traders are still in position for possible directional changes.  In the meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs are still seeing significant inflows; in the week ending October 4, 2025, worldwide crypto ETFs attracted around $5.95 billion in fresh capital, primarily from Bitcoin funds.  With its current AUM of over $95 billion, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) demonstrates ongoing institutional involvement.

Macroeconomically speaking, central bankers’ recent comments have strengthened anticipations that global rate reduction may start in early 2026, relieving liquidity restrictions.  But for the time being, the $125K–$128K region continues to be a strong resistance zone, limiting upward momentum.

Bull case for BTC price

If Bitcoin can maintain its strength above $125K, it may set the stage for targets in the $130K to $135K range, and in a renewed institutional demand scenario, possibly challenge $140K. The ongoing inflows into ETFs, especially from major asset managers, remain a primary bullish catalyst. According to a recent BTC price forecast by Bitwise Asset Management, Q4 ETF inflows may surpass prior quarterly records due to growing participation from sovereign wealth and pension funds.

Fundamental supply dynamics also continue to favor the bulls. Post-halving issuance remains historically low, and institutional accumulation has absorbed much of the available float. CryptoQuant data indicates that long-term holders remain largely inactive sellers — a sign of strong confidence in further upside. Overall, the Bitcoin outlook leans positive, with strong structural demand supporting prices at current levels.

Bear case for BTC

A steeper decline toward $115K–$110K might be invited if the $120K support region is not defended.  Selling pressure might increase if mood suddenly deteriorates, whether as a result of macro shocks, increased regulatory scrutiny, or ETF withdrawals.  There is still potential for volatility in either direction because technical indicators like the RSI and MACD are still moderately bullish but not overextended.  However, cascading liquidations might amplify downward swings if leveraged positions unwind aggressively.

Funding rates have flattened from recent highs, according to derivatives market data, suggesting a slight slowdown in speculative long activity. This reduces the immediate expectation of a breakout but might act as a stabilizing factor, preventing abrupt sell-offs.

BTC price prediction based on current levels

Bitcoin is currently consolidating between $120,000 and $125,000.  The path toward $130K to $135K would probably be opened by a clear breakout above $125K, with potential for a push to $140K if institutional inflows continue to be robust and macro conditions stay solid.  On the other hand, if momentum stalls, a breach below $120K would set off a decline toward $115K–$110K, possibly hitting deeper support levels.

Overall, the near-term projection remains neutral to slightly bullish, as Bitcoin maintains stability within its range, supported by resilient underlying demand. A sustained move above $125,000 would confirm renewed bullish momentum and could pave the way for another upward phase.