Matrixport analysts noted that the recent Bitcoin rebound back to $105,000 remains to be tested as indicators point to a possible pull-back despite short-term catalysts.
Summary
- Matrixport warns of a limited rebound period for Bitcoin plagued by brief consolidation and possible pullbacks despite short-term catalysts like the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown and proposed stimulus payments.
- The analysis platform also noted that Bitcoin has seen weak institutional inflows and continued ETF outflows that could serve to limit Bitcoin’s recovery momentum.
In a recent post, the on-chain analysis platform warned traders to stay vigilant as the BTC rebound may not reach as high as expected. Matrixport analysts noted that the sustainability of the recent rebound still remains to be tested as Bitcoin ETFs saw more outflows from the previous week.
Although some traders may argue that the BTC pull-back cycle has reached an “attractive” zone, with its RSI having dropped to 35 and reaching deeper into overbought territory. Matrixport also acknowledged that historical patterns show that this area is known for seeing more action from tactical buyers .
However, the platform believes that BTC (BTC) may not be able to jump very far, considering institutional capital is still very weak.
According to data from SoSoValue, all 12 U.S BTC Spot ETFs saw outflows totaling to $558.44 million at last week’s market close. The November 7 outflow marks the second-largest single-day withdrawal in light of recent trading sessions. Even though just a day prior, traders were celebrating the end of a six-day outflow streak when BTC ETFs finally recorded modest inflow.
In addition, Matrixport does highlight notable short-term catalysts that have the potential to trigger a higher rise. One of them is the likely resolution of the U.S government shutdown which has been going on for 40 days.
According to a report by Reuters, the U.S senate has advanced a bill that would fund the government until January 30. The bill also includes a package of three full-year appropriation bills. Though the bill still needs to be approved by the House of Representatives and signed by the President, Trump has expressed optimism at the bill’s potential to end the shutdown.
“It looks like we’re getting very close to the shutdown ending,” said President Trump to reporters.
Another strong catalyst noted by Matrixport are Trump’s comments that hint at a potential $2,000 stimulus-style payment mechanism for Americans. The concept is reminiscent of the 2020-2021 retail frenzy that was driven by government-distributed checks.
Despite these strong catalysts, Matrixport reminds traders to remain cautious.
“Market-cap recovery may be limited as ETF outflows over the past week suggest institutional capital is stepping aside, and these catalysts alone may not be sufficient to drive a sustained reversal,” stated Matrixport in its analysis.
Bitcoin price analysis
At press time, Bitcoin is currently trading at around $106,085 after rising by 4.24% within the past day. Though the token has mostly experienced a downward trend, having gone down by 1.32% in the past seven days and only recently regaining the $100,000 level.
Much like the Matrixport forecast, Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish. However, the overbought RSI and proximity to key resistance levels seem to hint at a brief consolidation or a pullback period that could occur before the price can move any higher.
The token’s 30-day period moving average is currently near $103,651 and curving upwards, which indicates that short-term sentiment is turning bullish after a period of consolidation and decline. This could mean that buyers are slowly regaining control after the price managed to bounce back above the MA after its slip below $100,000.
Moreover, the Relative Strength Index stands at 73.70, which means that Bitcoin has entered overbought territory. This suggests the presence of strong bullish momentum within the short-term period, but also hints at the possibility of a pullback or consolidation phase if buyers lose steam.
At the moment, Bitcoin’s immediate resistance level lies around $106,500 to $107,000 where higher swings previously formed in early November. If BTC manages to break through this range, it could open the door to the $110,000 to $112,000 range, where stronger selling pressure could emerge.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin loses its grip on the support level that sits at $103,500, it could risk falling deeper near the $101,500 mark.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
