Bitcoin traders brace for Federal Reserve decision as hold odds hit 98%

Bitcoin traders have positioned for a Federal Reserve pause next week, with CME FedWatch data showing a 98.2% probability that policymakers will leave interest rates unchanged at the June 16-17 meeting.

According to CME FedWatch data, markets are assigning only a 1.8% chance of a rate cut and no meaningful probability of a rate increase, leaving investors focused less on the decision itself and more on what Federal Reserve officials signal about the path ahead.

Attention has increasingly turned to the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, who will oversee both the rate announcement and the release of updated economic projections.

Alongside the policy statement, officials will publish a revised Summary of Economic Projections and the closely watched dot plot, which outlines where policymakers expect interest rates to move in the coming years.

The cautious positioning has coincided with weakness across digital assets. Crypto market data shows total market capitalization falling 2.47% over the past 24 hours to roughly $2.13 trillion, while Bitcoin (BTC) has also retreated as traders reduce risk exposure before the Fed decision.

Economists expect rates to stay unchanged through 2026

Fresh forecasts from Wall Street suggest policymakers may remain on hold for far longer than markets expected earlier this year.

According to a Reuters survey conducted between June 4 and June 9, 72 of 102 economists expect the federal funds rate to remain within the current 3.50% to 3.75% range through the end of 2026. Reuters noted that this represents the strongest consensus so far this year against additional rate cuts.

Several factors have contributed to that outlook. Reuters reported that stronger-than-expected economic data and ongoing inflation concerns have reduced expectations that the central bank will ease policy in the coming months.

Rate markets have moved in a similar direction. As reported by crypto.news, futures traders are now pricing the possibility of at least one rate increase by late 2026 rather than anticipating renewed cuts.

Additional support for the higher-rate outlook has come from major financial institutions. According to a crypto.news report, BNP Paribas recently revised its forecast and now expects the Federal Reserve to begin raising rates in December 2026. The French bank projects three increases that would effectively reverse the three rate cuts delivered during 2025.

Markets are watching the Fed’s projections and tone

Although traders overwhelmingly expect no change in borrowing costs next week, the accompanying forecasts could have a larger impact on financial markets.

Current Federal Reserve data places the effective federal funds rate near 3.62%, within the target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Any adjustments to inflation forecasts, growth expectations, or the dot plot could influence expectations for 2027 and beyond.

Inflation remains a key variable heading into the meeting. Market commentary cited in the original report noted expectations for U.S. inflation around 4.2%, keeping investors attentive to how Fed officials assess price pressures and future policy risks.

Political pressure has also remained part of the discussion. As crypto.news previously reported, President Donald Trump has continued to advocate for lower interest rates, while Warsh has stated that monetary policy decisions will remain independent of political influence.

For Bitcoin traders, a rate hold appears largely priced in. Instead, market participants are preparing for signals from Warsh’s press conference and the Fed’s updated projections, which could shape expectations for liquidity conditions and risk assets during the second half of the year.