Bitcoin price has traded below its two-year bull market channel for six weeks, with a 2021-style rounded top and VanEck’s hashrate drop data framing a pivotal retest of resistance.
Summary
- BTC broke below a long-running ascending channel and has since logged three failed reclaims, turning the channel’s lower boundary into stiff resistance.
- Current price action echoes 2021’s rounded top: breakdown, sharp dump, corrective bounce and renewed selling into the same support zone now being retested.
- VanEck flagged a 4% hashrate drop that has historically aligned with market bottoms, but analysts warn that confirmation still hinges on how BTC reacts at current resistance.
Bitcoin price is currently trading below its long-term bull market channel for six consecutive weeks, raising concerns about the cryptocurrency’s near-term trajectory as 2025 draws to a close, according to market analysts.
Bitcoin (BTC) broke below a trend channel it had maintained for nearly two years and has since faced repeated rejections at key resistance levels. During the six-week period below the channel, Bitcoin made three attempts to re-enter the structure, all of which were rejected, with resistance forming along the lower boundary of the previous trend channel, according to technical analysis.
Bitcoin price stalls at key level, what’s next?
Bitcoin is currently consolidating just below this resistance area, suggesting a fourth attempt to breach the level may occur. Market analysts stated that the asset’s reaction at this level could determine whether the recent decline represents a short-term deviation, a retest from below, or the beginning of a prolonged downward movement.
Some analysts have identified similarities between Bitcoin’s current price action and the pattern observed in 2021. In both instances, the asset exhibited a rounded top formation, followed by a sharp decline, a subsequent bounce, and continued downward pressure, according to technical analysis reports.
One analyst noted that the current support level being tested was also present during the 2021 cycle, when a breakdown from that level triggered a significant price decline. The analyst stated that while a move toward prior peak levels remains possible, such levels have historically marked turning points in market sentiment rather than sustained strength.
Technical analysts have presented diverging interpretations of current market conditions. One trader identified a potential bearish pennant formation on the weekly chart, suggesting a possible move toward lower major support levels if the pattern is confirmed.
VanEck reported a decline in Bitcoin’s network hashrate as of mid-December, indicating reduced mining activity. Such drops in hashrate have previously occurred near market bottoms, according to historical data, though analysts cautioned that past patterns do not guarantee future outcomes.
The cryptocurrency has struggled to regain momentum following the breach of its bull market channel, with market participants monitoring key technical levels to assess the potential for recovery or further declines.
Bitcoin price and Christmas rally narrative: what to expect
Since 2013, BTC has closed December up only 5 times and down 7 times, yet the average December return is around +4%, hiding swings from about +47% to −35%.
Aggregated Coinglass/Binance seasonality shows December slightly positive on average (around +4% for BTC), which feeds the “Santa rally” meme, but the distribution is bimodal: strong rallies or sharp drawdowns, not gentle drift.
Recent analysis suggests the Santa effect is weakening: 2020’s huge year‑end surge skews the stats, while the last few years show much smaller or even negative holiday returns, so treating “Christmas rally” as an edge is mediocre at best.
