Bitcoin traded near $73,700 on May 31 as traders watched whether the market could defend short-term support while analysts debated a possible rebound and a deeper cycle low later in 2026.
Summary
- Bitcoin trades near $73.7K as traders watch $71.4K support and $78.2K resistance.
- A TD Sequential buy signal points to a possible rebound toward $75,000 if demand improves.
- Low volume, weak RSI and Iran-linked risk keep Bitcoin under short-term market pressure this week.
Bitcoin price data showed BTC trading near $73,713, up 0.28% over 24 hours. The asset remained down 4.18% over seven days, while 24-hour trading volume stood near $16.09 billion.
The 24-hour range stayed tight, with Bitcoin moving between $73,469 and $74,110. The narrow range showed that traders had not yet pushed BTC into a clear breakout or breakdown.
The market cap stood near $1.47 trillion, keeping Bitcoin ranked as the largest crypto asset by market value. However, short-term chart signals remained weak as buyers struggled to build strong follow-through.
Volume stood at about 2.73K BTC, suggesting limited participation behind the latest move. That makes the current pullback less aggressive, but it also shows that buyers have not returned with enough strength.
A stronger recovery would need higher volume and a move back above the $78,000 to $80,000 resistance area. Until then, Bitcoin remains locked between near-term support and overhead selling pressure.
Analysts watch $71.4K support and $78.2K resistance
Market analyst Marcus Corvinus said Bitcoin is approaching a decisive point. He noted that the 30-day accumulation cohort has moved underwater, with its $78,200 cost basis now acting as resistance.
That means any rebound into the $78,200 area could meet selling from holders who want to exit near breakeven. A clean move above that zone would be the first sign that buyers are taking back control.
On the downside, Corvinus pointed to the 1-month to 3-month holder cost basis near $71,400. He called that level the strongest near-term support because this group still holds unrealized profits.
If $71,400 holds, Bitcoin bulls may still have a base for another recovery attempt. If it fails, the market could face a deeper move as short-term holders lose confidence.
Ali Martinez offered a more near-term bullish signal. He said Bitcoin had printed a TD Sequential buy signal and added, “I think a rebound toward $75,000 could be in the cards.”
That setup gives traders a short-term recovery level to watch. However, a move to $75,000 would still leave Bitcoin below the heavier $78,000 to $80,000 resistance zone.
Cycle-bottom calls move focus to late 2026
Crypto Tice presented a wider cycle view, arguing that every Bitcoin cycle has followed a three-year bull market and one-year bear market pattern. The account said that if the pattern holds, the next major low could arrive in late 2026.
The post warned that traders calling a bottom now may be early. It said previous market participants made similar calls before the 2018 low near $3,200 and the 2022 low near $15,500.
The account wrote, “The cycle doesn’t care about your conviction.” It also said the cycle does not care about ETFs, institutional adoption or market narratives.
Earlier reports have shown similar caution from on-chain analysts. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently said Bitcoin’s bear market could last until early 2027, citing an on-chain profitability model that has tracked prior downturns.
That view does not cancel a short-term rebound. It suggests that any bounce may still occur inside a wider weak market unless long-term demand returns and selling pressure fades.
Iran risk and weak indicators keep pressure on BTC
Geopolitical risk remains another market factor. Bitcoin recently rebounded toward $74,000 after president Trump announced the end of the Hormuz naval blockade, easing some pressure from weeks of Iran-related headlines.
However, tensions have not fully disappeared. U.S. sanctions on Iran’s military-linked oil trade and uncertainty around peace talks continue to keep energy markets and risk assets sensitive to new headlines.
Bitcoin’s technical indicators also remain cautious. The Accumulation/Distribution indicator stands near 12.68 million and has moved mostly flat to slightly lower in recent months.
Earlier in 2025, the indicator rose alongside price. Since late 2025, it has weakened, showing that steady accumulation has not fully returned.
The RSI sits at 37.47, below the neutral 50 level and below its signal line at 42.41. That shows bearish short-term momentum, though BTC has not yet entered deeply oversold territory.
For now, Bitcoin’s setup remains clear. Bulls need to defend $71,400 and push BTC above $78,200 to show stronger demand. If support breaks, analysts may give more attention to the late-2026 cycle-low scenario.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
