The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite opened mixed on Tuesday, July 1, with the third quarter of 2025 having a slow start amid jitters around President Donald Trump’s budget bill and looming tariffs deadline.
Dow Jones Industrial was 75 points up, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were at -0.2% and -0.3%, signaling a potential pullback. The largely lower trading comes after a second quarter 2025 run that saw stocks recover from a major dip in April to end the period emphatically in the green.
Notably, Wall Street saw all three major indices rise on Monday, with the benchmark index S&P 500 hitting record highs above 6,204. Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs had seen a bloodbath across the market, pushing the index into negative territory by early April. However, resilience even during recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East meant the S&P 500 closed the three-month period in bullish mood.
The blue chip Dow also ended the second quarter on a high with over 270 points on Monday, with this putting it up 5% over the period. Meanwhile, Nasdaq clawed back gains to close Q2 18% higher.
Q3 starts slow
While investor sentiment remains largely upbeat, Wall Street is starting slow for Q3 amid potential headwinds around trade talks.
Focus on Trump’s mega budget bill, which had the U.S. Senate vote overnight, and fresh feuding between the president and Tesla and SpaceX chief executive Elon Musk has markets a little on edge. This indeed saw the Tesla stock price pare gains on Tuesday, with Trump suggesting DOGE may have to take a look at the subsidies offered to Musk’s companies.
The outlook in the cryptocurrency market signalled a lack of upside conviction, with Bitcoin (BTC) shedding gains to below $107k. Analysts at Bitfinex say BTC could see range-bound trading amid a historically unimpressive Q3 for bulls.
Tariffs and Jerome Powell’s speech
As noted, market attention has shifted from the hostilities in the Middle East, with the Israel-Iran hostilities down, to potential downside catalysts.
The tariffs front has Trump’s July 9 deadline in focus, with reports suggesting White House is eyeing “narrowed” deals. Financial Times reported this to be the administration’s goal well before the date of the “reciprocal” tariffs rolls in.
Elsewhere, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will speak on Tuesday, with this coming amid the latest push from Trump regarding interest rate cuts. While the Fed hasn’t signalled such a move, investors are betting on a cut in coming months. Investors will also be keen on this week’s economic data reports, including the June jobs report.
