Bitcoin has fallen nearly 3% toward $63,000 after stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data reinforced the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook and reduced expectations for short-term rate cuts.
Summary
- Bitcoin fell nearly 3% to $63,282 as strong U.S. jobs data reinforced the Fed’s hawkish outlook.
- Technical indicators turned bearish after BTC broke below an ascending channel and key Fibonacci support.
- Analysts warn a loss of the $62,400 support zone could trigger a retest of June lows near $59,000.
According to U.S. Department of Labor data, initial jobless claims fell to 226,000 for the week ended June 13, down from a revised 230,000 in the prior week.
The report arrived one day after the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% during its June 17 FOMC meeting, marking a fourth consecutive pause while policymakers projected the possibility of additional tightening in 2026. The outlook prompted traders to reduce exposure to risk assets.
Oil markets have offered little support despite crude prices retreating sharply following reports of progress toward a U.S.-Iran framework agreement. While lower energy prices could ease inflation concerns, traders remain focused on the Fed’s latest projections and the resilience of the U.S. labor market.
Derivatives markets also turned defensive. Bitcoin (BTC) slid below $64,000 as leveraged long positions were flushed out across major exchanges, while traders reassessed the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. At the same time, continuing unemployment claims rose to 1.81 million, a detail that offered some evidence of labor market weakness but failed to offset the market’s reaction to lower headline jobless claims.
Bitcoin loses ascending channel support as sellers target lower liquidity zones
The four-hour chart shows Bitcoin breaking below the lower boundary of an ascending channel that had guided price action higher since the June 5 rebound from near $59,000. The breakdown occurred just below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $64,950, a zone that previously acted as support during the recent recovery attempt.
The next major support sits near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level around $62,400. A daily close below that area could expose the June low near $59,175, which also represents the measured downside target from the channel failure.
Momentum indicators have weakened alongside the breakdown. The RSI on the four-hour chart has dropped toward 38, placing it below neutral territory, while the MACD has produced a bearish crossover and shifted deeper into negative territory.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has also formed a bearish flag after its rebound from the June low near $59,175 stalled below the $67,000-$68,000 resistance zone. A confirmed breakdown from the flag would strengthen the bearish case and put the $60,000-$59,175 support area back in focus.
The Chaikin Money Flow remains below zero at roughly -0.12, showing capital continues to leave the market despite last week’s rebound attempt.
Liquidation data from CoinGlass highlights a dense cluster of leveraged positions between $63,000 and $63,500. Additional liquidity rests near $61,000 and $62,000, while significant short liquidation zones remain overhead around $65,000 and $66,500. With Bitcoin trading directly into a concentration of long leverage, volatility could remain elevated during the next several sessions.
Commenting on the recent breakdown, crypto analyst Altcoin Sherpa warned that Bitcoin could revisit the $60,000 region in the coming days if the current support area gives way.
Break below $62K could open the door to a retest of June lows
Analysts are increasingly focused on whether Bitcoin can defend the current support region. According to crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe, the market is approaching a pivotal level that could determine the next directional move.
“This is the level that needs to be held for BTC. It’s pivotal. If it doesn’t, we’ll test the lows and markets are about to fall some more on the Altcoins.”
A sustained move below $62,400 would strengthen the bearish case and increase the probability of a retest of the June low near $59,000. Beyond technical factors, another upside surprise in inflation data or additional hawkish commentary from Fed officials could further reduce expectations for policy easing and add pressure across crypto markets.
For bulls, reclaiming the broken channel support and recovering the $64,950-$66,700 area would be the first sign that sellers are losing control. Until then, traders remain focused on downside liquidity zones as Bitcoin struggles to stabilize following the Fed meeting and stronger-than-expected labor market data.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
