CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin’s slide is now driven by negative inflows, weak spot demand and fading risk appetite, raising the odds of an early-stage bear market.
Summary
- CryptoQuant says new investor inflows have turned negative, with Bitcoin sell-offs no longer absorbed by fresh capital.
- BTC has dropped about 23% in 80+ days after losing its 365-day MA, while Sharpe ratios slide into zones tied to late bull unwinds or entrenched bears.
- Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana all trade lower as analysts warn that without renewed demand, “weakness triggering withdrawal” could harden into a full bear market.
Core signal: inflows have flipped
CryptoQuant sums up the mood in one blunt line: “New investor inflows have flipped negative. The sell‑off is not being absorbed by fresh capital.” In their words, “In bull markets, drawdowns attract accelerating capital. In early bear markets, weakness triggers withdrawal.” That dynamic is now visible on chain, with the firm’s latest bear market assessment highlighting that Bitcoin has dropped roughly 23% over the last 80‑plus days after breaking below its 365‑day moving average for the first time since 2022.
External analysts are reading the same tape. A recent breakdown notes that spot and institutional demand remain weak, while risk‑adjusted returns, as measured by the Sharpe ratio, have sunk to zones historically associated with late‑stage bull unwinds or entrenched bear markets. As one market commentator put it: “drawdowns without fresh buyers tend to linger. In stronger regimes, dips pull in new capital fast; here, they’re just not showing up.”
Prices: risk bid is fading
At press time, Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $68,979, down about 2% over the last 24 hours, roughly 12% over the week and close to 30% year‑on‑year, after falling nearly 45% from its October 2025 all‑time high around $126,080. Ethereum (ETH) changes hands close to $2,012.92, with 24‑hour turnover of about $28.7B, a daily loss of roughly 1.4% and a 7‑day slide above 12%. Solana (SOL) sits around $86.02, marginally lower on the day, but down about 13% on the week and roughly 35% over the past month.
This parabolic move comes as digital assets continue to trade as the purest expression of macro risk appetite. Bitcoin is now struggling to hold the $70k area as “selling pressure overwhelms inflows,” with one analyst going as far as to call BTC “unpumpable” in the short term. Ethereum faces its own headwinds after a cycle of overheated leverage and extreme funding that has historically preceded sharp corrective moves. Solana, meanwhile, remains capped by a “bearish structure” as falling volume and shrinking open interest keep downside risk in focus.
What comes next
The key question now is whether negative inflows harden into sustained outflows. CryptoQuant warns that without a clear pickup in new demand, the current pattern of “weakness triggering withdrawal” looks less like a brief pause and more like the architecture of a true bear market.
