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Bitcoin (BTC) digital asset treasury companies, or DATCOs, that leverage a buy-and-hold model are closely monitoring BTC prices to determine their profitability in 2026. In a base-case scenario, BTC prices are expected to remain steady around $150k in 2026 and reach $200k by 2027. However, a ‘perfect storm’ of massive ETF inflows, easier macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory clarity may lead BTC to breach the $200k mark by 2026.
Summary
- Passive DATCOs depend on price; active ones don’t — buy-and-hold treasuries need BTC above ~$150k–$200k to perform, while active treasuries generate yield regardless of market direction.
- Macro, ETFs, and regulation point to a 2026 bull case — rate cuts, growing ETP inflows, and U.S. regulatory clarity support sustained BTC appreciation and reduce the odds of a classic four-year drawdown.
- Active treasuries are structurally superior — by staking, validating, and deploying assets productively, dynamic DATCOs compound returns, stabilize mNAV, and outperform pure price-exposure models over time.
DATCOs that deploy an active treasury to compound value through revenue-generating activities don’t depend on asset prices to accrue profit for investors. So, they continue to invest during market dislocations and don’t have to wait for BTC prices to reach $200k to generate value for shareholders. In the long term, Bitcoin DATCOs with a dynamic treasury strategy will determine the future of the crypto industry. Since these DATs follow a price-neutral strategy, they will consistently create value, irrespective of the market conditions.
Analyzing BTC price performance
Since crypto’s early days, BTC valuations had four significant drawdowns, occurring cyclically once every four years. In three instances, price peaks occurred 1 to 1.5 years after the quadrennial Bitcoin halving event, only to crash.
The last Bitcoin halving was in April 2024. Some market analysts believe that BTC prices have already peaked in October 2025 and will now experience their cyclical drawdown. However, there are three significant reasons why the four-year cycle thesis will end, and BTC prices will record new highs in 2026.
To begin with, there’s a macro demand for alternative assets such as Bitcoin. Amidst growing public sector debt and rising inflation, fiat currencies face the risk of debasement. Scarce assets like Bitcoin fill the gap, increasing in demand for investor portfolios.
Moreover, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2025, with plans for further reductions in 2026. Donald Trump has recently said, “We are poised for an economic boom the likes of which the world has never seen.” A supportive macro market, coupled with favorable Fed policies, will redirect capital toward assets like bitcoin.
On the other hand, new liquidity is likely to flow into crypto markets through spot ETPs. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $457 million in net inflows on December 17, their most significant one-day inflows since November, amidst heightened market volatility. Per CoinShares report, Bitcoin Year-to-Date ETP inflows are currently at $27.7 billion.
Grayscale has estimated that less than 0.5% of U.S.-advised wealth is currently allocated to crypto ETPs. With better due diligence, capital market integrations, and inclusion into model portfolios, Bitcoin ETF inflows are expected to grow in 2026.
Finally, regulatory clarity will drive institutional investment into Bitcoin. The U.S. government has already paved the way in 2025 by passing the GENIUS Act, rescinding SAB 121, and introducing listing standards for crypto ETPs. The momentum is expected to continue in 2026 if the market structure legislation, the Clarity Act, is passed with bipartisan support.
The Senate has already taken up discussions on the Clarity Act, which will provide a rulebook for crypto capital markets. A holistic crypto regulatory framework will enable on-chain capital formation and regulated entities to report and transact in digital assets in a compliant manner.
Therefore, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a sustained bull market rather than experience a price drawdown in 2026. For DATCOs that rely solely on BTC prices to generate value for stakeholders, it’s the only lifeline. However, for DATCOs with active treasuries, upward BTC prices offer an additional benefit, not the core basis, to generate value.
The impact of BTC prices on DATCOs
The longevity of DATCOs depends on their treasury management strategy and how they leverage liquidity reserves. Since DATCOs work with the underlying token’s value on their balance sheets, revenue-generating businesses always have an edge over pure-play DATs.
The multiple-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) is a key metric that determines DATCO’s survivability. When DATCOs trade at a high mNAV, their market cap exceeds the value of the tokens on the balance sheet. In this situation, companies can sell their stocks in an accretive manner.
Pure-play DATCOs take every dollar from their sales to buy the underlying tokens, thereby increasing their NAV. As long as DATs maintain a premium, companies with a buy-and-hold treasury management strategy won’t have a problem.
However, when the underlying token value drops, mNAV falls too. For example, given the recent slump in BTC prices, some of the largest DATs’ mNAVs have fallen below 1. They are currently trading at a discount to the value of the tokens on their balance sheets.
Some companies, like Strategy, the largest DAT by market capitalization, have established a U.S. dollar reserve fund to continue paying dividends on shares even if BTC prices decline. For other DATs, declining prices will lead to inefficiency and ineffective deployment of funds.
Fortunately, a combination of ETP inflows, pro-crypto legislations, and favourable macro conditions will lead to a BTC price rally in 2026-27, thereby saving pure-play DATCOs and super-charging DATs with active treasuries. Fadi Aboualfa, head of research at Copper, explained:
“We see the rise of cost-basis return cycles…bitcoin…pulls back to its cost basis and then rebounds by around 70%. With bitcoin now trading near its $87,000 cost basis, that pattern points to a move north of $140,000 in the next 180 days.”
A rise in BTC prices in 2026 is the only way for mNAV to go above 1 for DATCOs. Since shareholders of buy-and-hold DATs earn solely from the token’s price appreciation, they’ll have to wait for prices to go up.
However, DATCOs with an active, operations-driven treasury strategy make their underlying assets work for shareholders. Instead of a simple BTC acquisition, active DATs may run validator nodes, secure networks, validate transactions, and stake treasury assets to generate yield for investors.
DATs with dynamic treasuries are more effective at compounding returns than placing passive bets on BTC prices. These active treasury models are key to converting DATs into productivity engines, with better ROIs, robust balance sheets, and higher investor returns.
Unlike in previous bull markets, when BTC prices rose by at least 1,000% over 1 year, this time the YoY rise was 240%. Since the difference indicates steadier institutional buying rather than retail momentum chasing, the probability of a cyclical drawdown of BTC prices is extremely low.
Therefore, one can expect a steady rise in bitcoin prices, with BTC reaching $150K in 2026 and surpassing $200K by 2027, if not earlier. But DATCOs with active treasuries will not have to wait for prices to rise to $200K for outsized returns to investors.
With their revenue-generating treasury strategy, active DATs will continue to create value for investors across all price vectors. These DATCOs with active treasuries will drive the growth of the crypto industry in 2026 and beyond.
