Rising retail fear and whale sell-offs are pressuring XRP’s price, but history suggests this phase of capitulation could mark the start of a rebound.
Summary
- XRP price bounces back slightly but retail selling intensifies amid rising market volume.
- On-chain data shows whale outflows and retail fear, often seen near rebound zones.
- Upcoming ETF and regulatory decisions could inject fresh liquidity and lift prices.
As of this writing, XRP was up 1.7% over the last day, trading at $2.66. The token has increased 9.4% in the past week, hovering between $2.34 and $2.66. Despite this recovery, XRP remains about 28% below its July all-time high of $3.65, showing that the market is still stabilizing after months of selling pressure.
Market activity has strengthened notably. XRP (XRP) trading volume in the past 24 hours hit $3.79 billion, up 21% from the previous day. Data from CoinGlass shows derivatives volume rose 8.3% to $7.75 billion, while open interest climbed 1.7% to $4.48 billion.
This combination indicates that traders are opening fresh positions, reflecting a slow but steady return of speculative appetite.
Retail fear may mark reversal zone
Social data shows that retail traders are becoming increasingly fearful. According to an Oct. 26 X post by Santiment, small XRP holders have been offloading their positions as discussions around further price declines dominate social platforms.
Santiment observed that when the market expects XRP to drop below $2, it often indicates capitulation, a point at which weak hands leave and stronger players begin to accumulate.
Large holders seem to be taking profits at the same time. Whales sold about 70 million XRP in two days, according to an Oct. 25 post on X by analyst Ali Martinez. This indicates that the smart money is still cautious. This combination of whale selling and retail fear raises the possibility that the market is about to enter a transitional zone.
XRP price short-term catalysts
Beyond sentiment, XRP’s future trajectory could be influenced by several upcoming catalysts. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission recently postponed decisions on several spot XRP ETF applications until mid-November due to delays caused by the government shutdown.
Analysts predict that there’s still a good chance of approval, which might draw significant institutional inflows. Additionally, Ripple is awaiting a major decision regarding its application for a U.S. banking charter, which would permit it to operate under federal oversight and possibly expand its stablecoin and cross-border payment operations.
XRP price technical analysis
From a technical standpoint, XRP is showing early signs of strength. The relative strength index at 52 and the average directional index at 36 both indicate consolidation rather than exhaustion. Momentum and MACD readings suggest early bullish divergence, while short-term moving averages (10–30 EMA/SMA) all show “Buy” signals.
However, because the 50- and 100-day MAs are still flashing “Sell,” longer-term trend lines are still unclear. Additionally, the token is trading near the middle of its Bollinger Bands, indicating an accumulation phase following an extended decline.
If XRP breaks above $2.75, it could test $3.00, a key psychological resistance. Sustained closes above that zone would reopen the path toward $3.30–$3.50. On the downside, $2.30 serves as immediate support; a drop below could invite retests of $2.00 before any meaningful rebound.
