Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko has warned that Bitcoin developers must prepare for a potential quantum computing breakthrough that could render the network’s current security measures outdated.
Summary
- At the All-In Summit, Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko reignited debate over Bitcoin’s long-term security.
- There’s a “50/50” chance that quantum computers could break its cryptographic defenses within five years. Rapid advances in AI show how quickly theory can become reality.
- The question is not just if Bitcoin must migrate to quantum-safe cryptography—but when.
According to Yakovenko, who was speaking at the All-In Summit 2025, there is a “50/50” probability that within five years, quantum computers will be strong enough to crack the cryptographic safeguards protecting Bitcoin wallets.
The concern centers on quantum machines running algorithms like Shor’s, which could crack the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm currently protecting Bitcoin (BTC) private keys.
This would allow attackers to forge transactions and compromise wallets, creating an existential risk for the network.
Yakovenko argued that “we should migrate Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant signature scheme” before such technology becomes viable.
Skeptics like Blockstream’s Adam Back downplay immediacy of threat
The Bitcoin community remains divided on the urgency of quantum threats. Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, estimated that the technology is still relatively far away and argued that making Bitcoin quantum-ready is “relatively simple.”
Bitcoin Core contributor Peter Todd dismissed current quantum computers as non-existent, stating that “demos running toy problems do not count.”
Luke Dashjr, another Bitcoin Core contributor, suggested quantum threats pose less immediate danger than spam transactions and developer corruption issues the community currently faces.
Bitcoin’s design complicates any quantum upgrade. A migration to post-quantum cryptography would require a hard fork, a highly contentious and technically complex process needing widespread network support.
Yakovenko countered skepticism by pointing to quick AI advances as evidence of how quickly laboratory research can transition to real-world applications.
He suggested that when tech giants like Apple or Google deploy quantum-safe cryptographic stacks, “it’s time to migrate” Bitcoin’s security infrastructure.
Exposed keys create vulnerability
Bitcoin’s quantum vulnerability stems from two primary attack vectors. The network uses ECDSA based on the secp256k1 curve to secure private keys and validate transactions.
This makes it particularly vulnerable to Shor’s algorithm, which could derive private keys from public keys in polynomial time.
Approximately 25-30% of all Bitcoin, over 4 million BTC, including Satoshi Nakamoto’s early holdings, sits in addresses with exposed public keys.
These legacy Pay-to-Public-Key addresses are immediately vulnerable to quantum attack since their public keys are already visible on the blockchain.
Transaction windows create additional risk exposure. When Bitcoin users start transactions, they reveal public keys during the roughly 10-minute confirmation window.
A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could exploit this brief exposure to derive private keys and redirect funds before transactions confirm.
