Solana price has been in a strong bull run since April, when it bottomed at $95, with bulls targeting its all-time high ahead of the upcoming SOL ETF approval deadline.
Summary
- Solana’s blistering 150% rebound in 2025 has bulls eyeing further gains, but the rally is running headfirst into a critical technical test. A rising wedge formation on the daily chart, paired with weakening momentum signals, points to the risk of a sharp reversal.
- Yet strong fundamentals are pulling in the opposite direction: growing confidence that regulators will approve spot Solana ETFs and anticipation for the Alpenglow upgrade, which promises to overhaul the network’s speed and staking model.
- With heavyweight treasury buyers continuing to accumulate, SOL sits at a crossroads where technical headwinds clash with powerful catalysts for the next leg higher.
Solana price rising wedge is a major risk
Solana (SOL) token was trading at $239 at last check on Sunday, Sep. 21, up by over 150% from the year-to-date low. The token has bullish catalysts, but faces a major technical obstacle.
The main reason why the SOL price is rising is that it has slowly formed a rising wedge pattern on the daily chart. This pattern is characterized by two ascending and converging trendlines. The upper side of this pattern has connected the highest levels since May.
The two trendlines are about to converge, which may trigger a significant reversal in the near term. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index has formed a symmetrical triangle. Like the wedge, the two lines of this triangle are nearing their convergence.
Additionally, the two lines of the MACD indicator have crossed each other and are pointing downwards. Therefore, the token is at risk of a strong reversal if it remains inside the wedge pattern. A bearish breakdown will point to more downside, potentially to the support at $200.
SOL fundamentals need to overcome the bearish technicals
On the positive side, Solana’s price has some notable fundamental catalysts that may help to push it higher. One of the catalysts is that the odds that the SEC will approve spot SOL ETFs have jumped to over 90%.
Several companies, including Bitwise, Canary, and 21Shares, have filed for a spot SOL ETF. As such, with the final deadline approaching, there is a likelihood that the SOL price will soar as investors anticipate more demand from American investors.
The other key fundamental is that Solana will launch the Alpenglow upgrade in the next few months.
While Solana has implemented some upgrades in the past, this one will be the most important. For one, it will transform it from a proof-of-authority into a proof-of-stake asset. It will also supercharge its speed, making it one of the fastest chains in crypto.
Solana is seeing strong demand from Solana treasury companies, which have continued to accumulate it. Forward Industries owns coins worth over $1.58 billion, while DeFi Development and Upexi own tokens worth over $480 million. This steady demand may continue as more companies launch their treasuries.
