$32 bounce looks fragile under heavy OI

Hyperliquid’s HYPE price is currently trading near $32 after a failed breakout, with leverage and weak spot volume skewing risk toward deeper downside.

Hyperliquid’s HYPE (HYPE) price is trading in the mid‑$30s, with price currently shaped by supply from the recent unlock and ongoing purchases from the project’s assistance fund. Traders seem to be pointing towards a near‑term focus is on whether the $33–$35 area holds as support or whether a breakdown in that zone would open the way for a move toward the high‑$20s in the coming sessions.

HYPER price prediction

Spot trades on major venues are clustered in the low‑ to mid‑$30s, leaving HYPE with a multi‑billion‑dollar fully diluted valuation on several hundred million dollars of daily volume. Daily RSI stuck in the high‑40s and short‑term averages pressing down on price suggest an undecided market where neither side has clear control, despite bullish claims. 

​Market structure is still leaning against a clean upside break. The recent unlock has dumped a visible chunk of supply into circulation, trading activity is shrinking instead of expanding, and the chart is grinding inside the same tired channel it has been stuck in for months.

2.6% of circulating HYPE supply dropped into float

Under the surface, the flows are lopsided. Around 9.9 million HYPE — roughly 2.6% of the circulating supply — dropped into the float for insiders and contributors in a single cliff event near November 29. Hyperliquid’s Assistance Fund has spent more than 600 million dollars on buybacks this year and usually absorbs a few million dollars of tokens a day, but that steady demand looks small next to a one‑off release of this size, leaving the book twitchy and exposed if any of that supply hits the bid. Derivatives tell a similar story: spot and futures volumes are down by roughly a third from recent highs and open interest has eased a few points, a mix that often produces sudden air pockets once price starts to move.

Social media sentiment

Scroll through X and the split is obvious. One camp argues HYPE is just slow beta, lagging the rest of the market and tugging on the index rather than breaking down on its own, while another folds the recent underperformance into a broader shift toward lower risk in majors and high‑beta names. A louder group claims the Assistance Fund is quietly scooping up tokens while HYPE trades like stressed paper, insisting the market has lost perspective and that current levels look more like a temporary disconnect than a fair clearing price.

The chart, for now, refuses to pick a side. HYPE is still walking lower inside a descending channel that has capped rallies since late summer, with the 33–35 dollar band acting as the pivot where both bulls and bears keep testing each other. A decisive daily close below that zone would quickly pull the 28–30 dollar area into focus as a likely liquidity pocket and stop cluster, while a clean reclaim and hold of the 36–37 dollar “distribution” area would hint that sellers are finally running out of inventory and reopen space toward 40 and above into year‑end — but only if bigger flows, healthier funding and firmer open interest come back with it.

Put into odds, the near term still tilts slightly to the downside. The fresh supply overhang and softer speculative participation make a retest of the high‑$20s the base case, with a lower‑probability path where HYPE squeezes back through $37 if macro risk stabilizes and the Assistance Fund’s bid is strong enough to chew through what is left of the unlocked supply.